Personal Journal

Decisions, results, CLV, and risk behavior.

Decisions

Win rate

54.7%

ROI

+6.2%

Avg CLV

+0.41

By sport

NBA56% · n=22

NFL52% · n=14

MLB55% · n=12

Spread55% · n=28

Total53% · n=12

Prop57% · n=8

Average stake 0.85u · max single risk 1.5u · pass rate 31%

DEN @ MIN

Spread DEN -2.5 · take

76winCLV +0.8

NYK @ MIA

Total Under 212.5 · take

71lossCLV -0.3

DAL @ PHX

ML DAL +145 · pass — Risk elevated — passed despite model lean.

62pending

GB @ DET

Spread GB +3 · watch